MIT is not part of the UN establishment; its report on the Paris pledges comes to a much different conclusion, than does the U.N. report. For example, MIT’s report says, “Under the proposed cuts, the emissions path far exceeds levels consistent with the 2°C goal.” Here are a few other conclusions from MIT’s report:
- The 64 Gt CO2-eq emissions level we estimate for 2050 is about 13 Gt less than our 2014 Outlook, in which only Copenhagen–Cancun pledges were considered.
- Assuming the proposed cuts are extended through 2100 but not deepened further, they result in about 0.2°C less warming by the end of the century compared with our estimates, under similar assumptions, for Copenhagen–Cancun. Other adjustments in our economic projections resulted in another 0.2°C reduction in warming.
- Under the proposed cuts, the emissions path far exceeds levels consistent with the 2°C goal often used as a target in climate negotiations as a level necessary to prevent dangerous climate change.
- If no policy beyond these proposed cuts is implemented, then by 2030 the world will be within about 5 years of hitting the cumulative emissions level that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I estimates as consistent with there being a 50% chance of holding the temperature increase to less than 2°C.